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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

DRAFTPRE SEASONREGULAR SEASONPOST SEASON

2021 SAG AWARDS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

UPDATED: Apr. 1, 2021

In the past, the perfect storm for a picture winner has been nominations in all three guilds’ top categories, in addition to nods at the Oscars in directing, writing, acting, editing and obviously picture. This year, none of the eight nominees has all of those elements, which marks the second time in 24 years that’s occurred (the other was the 2017 lineup that included “The Shape of Water,” which missed SAG ensemble). This is the place where Netflix’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” or A24’s “Minari” could declare themselves the alternative to “Nomadland” in best picture, which no film has been able to achieve yet confidently. This helps that “Promising Young Woman” is not nominated in ensemble. If Carey Mulligan loses in the best actress, it would mark the second televised show that the film would go home empty-handed following the Golden Globes.

PRECURSORS LEADER: “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar


AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

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    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "Mr Kunstler, I have lived a very long time and you are the first person ever to suggest that I have discriminated against a Black man" - Frank Langella (Judge Hoffman)

    PRODUCERS: Marc Platt and Stuart Besser
    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong


  2. "Minari" (A24)

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    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "Remember what we said when we got married? That we’d move to America and save each other? Instead of saving each other, all we did was fight." - Steven Yeun (Jacob)

    PRODUCERS: Christina Oh
    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton


  3. "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

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    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "[singing acapella version YOU SEND ME]." - Leslie Odom Jr (Sam Cooke in Boston Ballroom as told by Malcolm X)


    PRODUCERS: Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein
    DIRECTOR: Regina King
    SYNOPSIS: A fictional account of one incredible night in 1964, where four icons of activism, sports and music – Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Sam Cooke – gathered, discussing their roles in the civil rights movement and cultural upheaval of the ’60s.
    STARRING: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom, Jr.


  4. "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)

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    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "What I care about bad luck? You talking simple. I ain’t had nothing but bad luck all my life. Couldn’t get no worse. What the hell I care about some bad luck? Hell, I eat it every day for breakfast. You dumber than I thought you was, talking about bad luck." - Chadwick Boseman (Levee)

    PRODUCERS: Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf
    DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe
    SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable "Mother of the Blues". Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson's play.
    STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman


  5. "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)

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    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "You will not kill Paul." - Delroy Lindo (Paul)


    PRODUCERS: Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin
    DIRECTOR: Spike Lee
    SYNOPSIS: Four African American vets battle the forces of man and nature when they return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader and the gold fortune he helped them hide.
    STARRING: Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Jonathan Majors, Chadwick Boseman, Isiah Witlock, Jr,, Norm Lewis


† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)


About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature...

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